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Paper prices fluctuate frequently in August, and the advent of double holidays may lead to the rise in September

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Paper prices fluctuate frequently in August, and the advent of double holidays may lead to the rise in September

Release date:2018-09-03 Author:中国纸网 Click:

This article analyzes the price trend of waste paper and corrugated base paper in the past month and makes a simple prediction of the market trend in the short term. Analysts believe that the decline in the price of waste paper at the end of August may appear to expand, and the operation of national waste will continue to weaken slightly in the short term. However, this year ’s Mid-Autumn National Day holiday is not combined, and the holidays are longer. In order to stimulate the upstream packing station after the start of the paper mill, and various external factors, the possibility of rising raw material costs in September is relatively large. With the arrival of double sections, the demand for cardboard boxes will also increase, and it is expected that the price of corrugated base paper will also increase.

First, waste paper


According to price monitoring, the overall price of waste paper in August showed an upward trend. Before August 27, the price of waste yellow paperboard showed a steady upward trend. Until the 28th, the price gradually reversed.


The average market price of waste yellow board in August was 2958.71 yuan / ton, which was 3.2% higher at the end of the month than at the beginning of the month. The highest point of this month's price appeared on August 27, the average price of that day was 3055.71 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.21% compared with the beginning of the month. The lowest point occurred on August 1, with an average price of 2902.29 yuan / ton that day.


Looking at the changes in the market, the price of waste paper began to pick up in August, but the price trend of the north and the south did not show the same trend. The purchase price of waste paper in various regions of the country still rose and fell. The factory successively issued waste paper acquisition standards, and its strictness caused headaches to all packing stations, and the supply of waste paper also increased difficulty.


Since mid-August, orders for the finished paper market have gradually increased, coupled with the arrival of the “Golden Nine, Silver and Ten” peak season, downstream stocks have been prepared in advance, and the demand for the finished paper market has gradually picked up. After the 25% tariff is about to be imposed on the US waste from the 23rd, the price advantage of the US waste over domestic waste paper is no longer obvious. In addition, the RMB has continued to depreciate against the US dollar in the recent past. The purchase of US waste will inevitably increase the cost, which makes paper companies have to shift their focus to domestic waste paper, making domestic waste paper gradually occupy a larger share of raw materials in the paper industry. Heavier.


However, at the end of August, there was a large-scale downward adjustment in the price of waste paper, and the reason for the decline may be that first, the strict inspection of environmental protection in some areas led to a reduction in the enthusiasm of paper mills to purchase national waste; Market demand rebounded less than expected, the peak season continued, and manufacturers' inventory was still at a high level.


Corrugated base paper


According to the price monitoring, the price of 8-sheet corrugated base paper as a whole was stable. The average price of corrugated base paper in August was 4143.33 yuan / ton, which was lowered by -0.8% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. This month's price highs occurred on August 1st and 28th. The average price for both days was 4166.67 yuan / ton.


Since August, the price of corrugated base paper has continued to fall due to insufficient downstream orders. Coupled with the shortage of waste paper supply, the shutdown and maintenance of paper mills continued. Therefore, there are no favorable factors in the corrugated paper market, and the actual market volume has declined. The price of corrugated base paper has been stable from mid-August to mid-late, and the list of the first batch of tax increases did not involve corrugated base paper products, so it did not have a significant impact on the domestic market. At the end of August, the price of corrugated paper picked up slightly, and the market shouted that the sentiment was high, and the actual order rose slightly weakly. However, due to the sudden decline in the national waste price, it will be difficult to support the increase in the price of raw paper.


Analysts believe that the decline in the price of waste paper at the end of August may appear to expand, and the operation of national waste will continue to weaken slightly in the short term. However, this year ’s Mid-Autumn National Day holiday is not combined, and the holidays are longer. In order to stimulate the upstream packing station after the start of the paper mill, and various external factors, the possibility of rising raw material costs in September is relatively large. With the arrival of double sections, the demand for cardboard boxes will also increase, and it is expected that the price of corrugated base paper will also increase.



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